Monday, September 3, 2012

Economic Growth

I'm no economist - there's no doubt about that.  I haven't made it my life's work to study market systems and how to spur growth.  But from my layman's position, I've got a few observations to make.

First, I've observed that the American economy at present is doing pretty well, relative to most of the world. My viewpoint is probably skewed by the fact that I do intend to make it my life's work to walk with the poor, the disenfranchised, and the marginalized.  It's probably skewed by the fact that I have walked alongside people from urban slums in a small handful of Latin American countries and Kenya.  But things seem pretty alright to me, all-in-all.

Second, we do not seem to be in the worst recession of America's history, as I've heard some commentators say.  I wasn't alive then, but I'm pretty sure the Great Depression of the 1930s was worse.

Third, this does not seem to be the worst economic recovery from a recession ever, as I've also heard some commentators say.  Once again, I'm pretty sure the fact that it took a decade plus a major war to recover from the Great Depression is a sign that we are doing better than that.  The numbers seem to indicate a pretty decent, steady recovery to me.

Fourth, I'm not entirely convinced that this recovery is all that bad at all.  One of the first things I remember learning in Economics class was that the economy tends to move in cycles over bubbles and busts.  One of the reasons things never stabilize is that government action has enormous inherent delays in it - when some decision gets made, it takes a very long time for results to actually come back.  Therefore, it's common for the government to initiate a growth-spurring action during a downturn that actually takes effect once the economy is already revving up again, inciting further acceleration.  Booms are always followed by busts.  Many people seem to be looking for a massive pendulum swing to prosperity again, and I'm not convinced that either the process of getting there or the outcome of that is a good thing.  I believe the process of getting there may cause another recession later, and I further believe that unrivaled and unchecked wealth is a dangerous thing.  This goes back to my first observation.

Finally, I'm not buying the arguments about economic policy.  Again, I'm no expert, but the Reaganomics of tax cuts to the wealthy and the businesses seem to me to have 2 effects: one, they do spur economic growth, and two, they do increase general inequality.  Many people say they don't work, and I disagree with that, but I don't see how you can say that they don't cause the wealthy to become fabulously wealthier while the poor and middle class only see marginal gains.

Anyway, just general things that I wanted to say.  Feel free to disagree with me, like I said - I'm no expert.  These are just things that I have tended to observe as general trends.