Where We Are Heading

Over a few beers a couple weeks ago, some friends and I got to discussing the future of self-driving cars.  It seems like we're headed that direction in a hurry, and I'm fascinated by the implications of that.  Don't think it's happening?  Look around you.  For some time we've had cars that can parallel park for you.  Now we have cars that can hit the brakes for you to avoid a collision.  Driverless cars already exist, and several companies are predicting a mass-market version by the end of the decade.  Perspectives differ on exactly how they will spread into the market, whether extremely slowly or rapidly, whether all-at-once or just by implementing certain features at a time, but I think we are undoubtedly heading that direction.

Why wouldn't we head that direction?  We humans are overall terrible drivers.  We make an enormous number of mistakes, whether it's because we are not paying attention or because of things we just can't know.  In 2012, 34,080 people died in motor vehicle accidents, meaning you have about a 1 in 10,000 chance of dying in a given year on the roads.  Those odds are far too high.  How could those odds be decreased?  By taking the human factor out.  The government is already calling for car manufacturers to accelerate plans for cars to talk to each other.  The next step will be for cars to drive themselves.

What happens when cars are capable of driving themselves?  Well, lots of things, if you think about it!  It totally changes the game.  We need fewer police officers and traffic lights, which saves the government money (they can either cut taxes or spend it on something else more useful).  We won't need to pay as much in car insurance (there will be fewer wrecks, and if there is one you're more likely to be owed money by the manufacturer of the car's computer than another driver).  Most households will only need one car (you can just send it back to get another family member once you're at your destination).  You could even monetize your car when you're not using it, through a smartphone network like Lyft.  You can rest, work, or do anything else you'd like while commuting to work.  We won't need such large roads, as cars will move more like a flock of birds and less in traffic jams.  We may even need less parking spaces, if cars aren't staying where their owners are!

There are things to be considered in all of this.  Cities are moving to be more pedestrian-friendly.  How does this coexist with new developments in driverless cars?  Cities also traditionally expect infrastructure investments to last at least thirty years, meaning that investments taking place right now will still be in place when we have self-driving cars.  Thus, if city managers aren't taking the future into account, they are making mistakes as we speak.  Or, are there more challenging ethical issues to be considered, based on the fact that computers will not be able to avoid all collisions?  Additionally, how do we ensure the safety of a system that could be hacked, reprogrammed, or damaged?

I love thinking about the future, and I'm excited for what could come in the future - a safer, quicker way of moving about!  I'd love to hear your thoughts on the subject in the comments!